Is McLaren Really Only F1 2026's Fourth-Fastest Team?
The Debate Over McLaren's Performance
While Formula 1's top teams may have differing opinions on who is currently leading the pack, one thing is clear: nobody is putting McLaren at the top. Mercedes believes Red Bull is the benchmark, Red Bull thinks it's in fourth place behind Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren, Ferrari puts Mercedes and Red Bull slightly ahead, and McLaren itself has singled out Ferrari and Mercedes as the leaders. So, is the reigning champion team genuinely behind the others at the start of the new rules era?
The Uncertainty of Testing Data
Right now, there's no definitive answer, as untangling the picture from testing data is more complicated than ever due to the huge variations in energy management tactics. However, by analyzing the raw data from long runs and considering McLaren's own messaging, a picture is emerging of a team that may not be as strong as it would like to be.
The Pace Story
What seems consistent between long-run analysis and McLaren's self-assessment is that the team is not in the same comfortable position it was a year ago, when it had a car advantage early on. Oscar Piastri, a member of the team, is sure that there won't be a repeat of the season starting with McLaren as the squad to beat, as it was in 2025. Long-run data from some race simulations run at similar times on the final day of the Bahrain test explains why this conclusion has been reached.
Comparative Race Simulations
Here's how three comparative race simulations from Friday evening played out to highlight McLaren's challenges:
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
Start: Friday 5.37pm
Stint 1: Soft, 16 laps (1m40.128s avg)
Stint 2: Hard, 12 laps* (1m38.547s avg)
Stint 3: No data
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
Start: Friday 5.14pm
Stint 1: Soft, 17 laps (1m40.280s avg)
Stint 2: Hard, 17 laps (1m38.929s avg)
Stint 3: Medium, 6 laps* (1m37.461s avg)
Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
Start: Friday 4.57pm
Stint 1: Soft, 11 laps (1m40.947s avg)
Stint 2: Medium, 20 laps (1m39.604s avg)
Stint 3: Hard, 18 laps* (1m38.472s avg)
- denotes stints with laps lost to timing issues
McLaren team principal Andrea Stella reckoned those three runs offered a picture of where those squads stacked up. "I can confirm that the race pace of Ferrari looks pretty competitive in the simulation that [Lewis] Hamilton did," he said at the conclusion of testing. "I think Antonelli and Hamilton were quicker than us."
The Knowledge Gap
However, to simply extrapolate a single reference of race runs to conclude that McLaren needs to find around 20 seconds over a grand prix distance would be incorrect. What seems to have become apparent throughout the testing period is that, while there are differences in the performance of the various packages, there is perhaps a bigger spread when it comes to those who have and have not fully grasped the new regulations and unlocked the full potential of each car.
Catching Up
As Stella mentioned, early indications from a competitiveness point of view put Ferrari and Mercedes at the top of the list in terms of those that seem ready from a performance point of view. McLaren's pace is shrouded by uncertainty over run plans, and the team is playing catch-up in one key area. The impression is of the established works teams - Mercedes and Ferrari in particular - having hit the ground running when it comes to knowing what strings to pull when it comes to extracting laptime.
The Impact of Understanding the Regulations
With their own engine departments having worked for years on the power unit concepts and developed things in step with their own chassis teams, it's not hard to understand why the works teams may hold a bit of a knowledge advantage right now. Even if customer teams such as McLaren, Williams, and Alpine are given the exact same equipment and software tools as the works squad, there is still an element of them needing to catch up in terms of hitting a baseline of understanding with the power units.
The Knowledge Gap is Closing
This is why even on day one in Bahrain, McLaren chief designer Rob Marshall said McLaren was still in a phase of "trying to understand the characteristics of the car without trying to dial it in." However, Marshall was convinced that the knowledge gap between the works teams and the customers is going to close very quickly. "A lot of the early work was based on aero numbers that were a complete guess," he said. "And then later work would have been based on aero numbers which were more evolved but still not proven."
The Impact of Small Details
"Now, the maps that we'll be sending for simulations that will be used to hone the power unit will be different tomorrow than they were yesterday. So everything evolves," Marshall continued. "I think now we will get to the stage where everyone catches up quickly, because everyone actually has got the real data from the real cars. So drag levels, downforce levels, any quirks the cars have. They're all those little things are coming to life."
The Bottom Line
Right now, it certainly appears that McLaren may be at the back of the big-four pack at the front. But with three more days of running to get further answers about how to get the most out of these 2026 cars, what is true today may not be correct this time next week. And Marshall for one was convinced that the knowledge gap between the works teams and the customers is going to close very quickly.
